Review of the methods to enhance efficiencies of solar pvcs Essay Example

Review of the methods to enhance efficiencies of solar pvcs Essay These are the questions that one individual should ask himself if he/she does an research on these organic solar cells. The reason behind their entry is the scarcity of existing crystalline solar cell manufacturing base material, day by day hiking cost. As we all know that the polymers and simple molecules are abundant on earths surface and are cheaper in cost, and having desirable physical properties like light weight, flexibility etc. These are initial parameters those pushed the researchers to step in and take the motive of introducing organic solar cells into semiconductor device industry. Initially silicon based solar cells were in many, but because of cost factor and their respective material properties they were moderately replaced by organic photo voltaic cells. As they are cheap, lightweight and are easy to fabricate they are in lead to crystalline organic photo voltaic cells. Devices made of these are supposed to have a theoretical efficiency of 10%. But, today, the efficiency we have for a small molecule organic photo voltaic cell is in the range of (0. 3-1. 3)%. Hence, efforts for higher efficiencies are under research for many years, and these researchers have even a point to notice that the designing and synthesis of donor acceptor materials is vital for an efficient organic photo voltaic cell. Challenges so far we have are because of their low efficiency, low strength, low stability, and sensitiveness to environment. Factors like band gap, charge carrier density, absorption coefficient for incident solar spectrum in visible and near IR range are important to improve the efficiencies. We will write a custom essay sample on Review of the methods to enhance efficiencies of solar pvcs specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on Review of the methods to enhance efficiencies of solar pvcs specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on Review of the methods to enhance efficiencies of solar pvcs specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer In this report we mainly focus on the organic solar cells based on small molecules. Having said that, we should know, why small molecules? The reason behind that is these small molecules has mostly hydrocarbons with carbon atoms alternatively linked to neighbor carbon atoms with alternate single-double bonding resulting into conjugated systems. In these systems the electrons in the p-z orbitals idealizes to form a idealized bond with orbital and anti-bonding with orbital. Where the orbital is considered as highest occupying molecular orbital (HOMO) and is least occupying molecular orbital(LOOM). Hence the gap between these two is considered to be the band-gap. Hence in small molecules the band-gap angels from 1-4 eve, which is moderately favorable for making a photo voltaic cell. When these systems absorb a photon, exited state is created in which e?ho pair is formed and is found to be bounded by electrostatic interaction. Hence, these conjugated systems are very vital to be maintained inside each small molecule. Slightly introducing the type of materials required. We first of all concerned about the properties like band-gap, high temperature resistant, thickness, charge carrier density, ease of fabrication, and stability. For a material, to be a desired one, it should have moderate band-gap I. . In the semiconductor range with high charge carrier density, high strength and resistance at high temperatures, long life of functioning, moderate if possible low thickness, high absorption cross-section to incident solar spectrum and ease to process and fabricate. As a part of our discussion in this term paper we will see what type of materials are necessary and how they function under applied light and generated electric field. For a small molecule based organic photo voltaic cell we generally choose indium oxide as electrode-I and metals with low work functions electrode-2. Generally we use Aluminum, Magnesium or Calcium. The difference between work functions between two electrodes develops electric field in organic layer. When light is incident on these elements sextons are produced as electrons are exited to LOOM leaving behind holes in HOMO. Potential difference due to difference in work functions separates the electron-hole pair inside the organic layer and pulls them as electrons to positive electrode and holes to the negative electrode. Here, the positive electrode is an electrical conductor used to make contact with a non-metallic part of circuit. Most importantly, for high efficiencies we should have high charge carrier density inside organic layer and controlling the loss of energy as heat from the organic layer surface. Hence we adopt some efficiency improvement methods based on the properties and functioning nature of the materials. Below are some of the methods we have reviewed to improve the efficiencies of organic photo voltaic cell based on small molecules. They are as follows: Methods to improve the efficiencies of organic solar cells based on small molecules: For a PVC (Organic Photo Voltaic Cell) based on copper pathetically-CO introducing beatification between buckminsterfullerene and aluminum cathodes gives the improvement of efficiency up to ;4%. Improving stability and lifetime of layered structure. Minimized charge recombination loss in Poops. Minimizing water and oxygen induced degradation of small molecules in Poops. Improving the efficiency of solution processed small molecule Poops using thermal annealing. By combining two vacuum processed heterogeneous to optimize the absorption power of PVC and controlling the construction parameters thereby making them efficient. Using a unstructured sandwich processing. Controlling parameters like band gap and dissipation of energy in the form of heat. By making molecules face to face by maintaining optimum donor acceptor relative positions. By energy harvesting and improved storage methods. Solution processing of small molecules to improve efficiency by 6. %. We will now further proceed into each method of improving efficiency in-detail. As we have noticed from above methods, we have adopted, most of them are having their vital role during processing of an PVC rather than it is being a product. Hence, in an semiconductor industry the manufacturing processes of elements is given prior rarity. For a PVC (Organic Photo Voltaic Cell) based on copper pathetical ly-CO gives the improvement of efficiency up to ;4% Most efforts are being made from past few decades to improve the efficiency of Poops. One among them is by inserting beatification(BCC) between fulfiller and aluminum cathode, organic thin film POP cells based on Chauncey-CO is observed to have an increased efficiency up to greater than 4%. Reason behind the insertion of this BCC layer is to minimize the exited loss during incident light and electric field. As the BCC inserted, obviously lays a very important roles in these cells by blocking the exited transport and hence named as Exited Blocking Layer. Once the exited transport is blocked, increases the charge carrier density inside the organic layer and minimizes the losses related to them and finally increasing the efficiency grater than 4%. Before the insertion of this BCC layer, the efficiency is around 1-1. 5%. Hence it is considered to be a good move in increasing the efficiency. But, a new problem has arises because of BCC insertion. The Poops lifetime was decreased; now the lifetime is about only few hours. This ay be probably due to the instability of inserted BCC layer, as it is easily crystallized in moist environment. BCC was already used for improving the electroluminescent efficiency in organic Leeds. However their lifetime is also found short because of instability of BCC layer. Hence for improving the stability we dope the BCC with PITCH (3,4,9,10-perpendicularitys-licks-biomedical) Improving stability and lifetime of layered structure. In this section a small molecule PVC with the structure of TIT I Donor electoral I buffer layer I III is studied as a case where we can improve efficiency to some extent. In this experiment the usage of Alas s a buffer layer instead of BCC is seen. Reason for using Alas instead of BCC is to use the effective blockage of waters lozenge to permeate through the acceptor layer. Another role of this new buffer layer is to block the diffusing cathode atoms into active layer during deposition and hence improve the efficiency. Describing the experiment, which is carried at room temperature without encapsulation, starting from deposition to the results in improved efficiency. Three types of buffer layers were used to study the I-V characteristics of the device in both light and dark. The layered structure of the PVC is shown below. As we can see the buffer layer is separating the cathode from CO. The three layers are For device. A with BCC as buffer layer, for device. B with 50% BCC+50% Alas, for device. C with pure Alas as buffer layer. In this experiment the power conversion efficiencies for all the three are measured under the illumination Oriel Solar Simulator producing an AM 1. 56 spectrum. The I-V characteristics are recorded by Keith 2400. The calibrated I-V characteristic is shown below. The experimental results from I-V characteristics ( Voce, Sis, IF) are tabulated below. Device Buffer Layer used Voce (V) Sis (ma/CM) Filling Factor(IF) Efficiency(%) A OHIOÂ ¼BCC. 42 5. 09 0. 49 1. 39 B 0. 49 5. 8 0. 464 1. 75 C 100% AlAlas. 506 6. 03 0. 52 2. 11 The irradiation intensity used is 75mawmCMf A. M 1. 5 simulated solar spectrum. Above values are same for the three devices under investigation. From the tabulated values it is clear that AlAlass most effective than BCBCCnd further experimental results have shown that the lifetime is increased up to 150 time the initial one. Hence by inserting an buffer layer which acts as blocking layer without affecting the life time of evvices also one of the good options of improving the efficiencies. Minimized charge recombination loss in OPPoopsIn this section we discuss about minimizing the recombination losses of CuCupTPatchhotovoltaic cell by employing spin forbidden transition to reduce the recombination loss in OPPoopsWithout the mixing processes like spin-orbit coupling, spin-lattice interaction and hyperfine coupling he spin conversion process between singlet and triplet is not possible. The molecular ground state have a singlet spin symmetry and hence the triplet CT states are forbidden to come and relax into the ground state. We an use this method to reduce the loss of recombination. The open circuit voltage and the fill factor can be improved by minimizing the recombination loss. Once VoVocend Fill factor are improved keeping IsSisonstant the efficiency improvement will take place. Minimizing water and oxygen induced degradation of small molecules in oppoopsThis section aims at complete knowledge of degradation of molecules because of water and oxygen during operation in small molecule based OPPoops Once material degradation takes place, its consequences affect the physical, mechanical and electrical properties of materials, and hence the efficiency of device. The most significant degradation mechanisms for organic solar cells is diffusion of molecular oxygen and water into the device. The organic solar cell we discuss in this section is of the composition ITTITnd A1AYre the two electrodes where ITTITehaves like anode and A1AYs like cathode. In this experiment we have three sets of samples with same coconfigurationThree types of environments are used in dark and light modes. Environments used are nitrogen, oxygen and water. The lifetime or end of lifetime of a solar cell is quoted as T88THr TSTTShich is the time taken by the device to reach 80% or 50% of its ininitialrreferenceWe use these values to record the lifetime of the above species in different environmental conditions. The results are tabulated below: Device name Intensity (W/m2mmTemperature (occoReReelHumidity(%) Atmosphere (1 atATMLife time( T88TH55THN2NOight 330 49 0 N2NO) 405/2700 N2NOark 0 26 0 N2NOlove box) 1802 Light 330 49 0-17AAA3/74 1802 Dark 0 48 0-17AAA H2H2O80 Light 330 39 65 H2H2O80:N2NO. /11 H2H2O80 Dark 048 65 H2H2O80:N2NO As we can see from the tabulated results, the life time is decreasing for water case than in oxygen case. Hence degradation is seen largely in case of water than in xyoxygenFollowing table will provide the knowledge of how the efficiency changes with different types of injection. Water injection showing the effect on Short circuit current, open circuit voltage , fill factor, and efficiency. As we can see from above data that the efficiency after injection is gradually decreasing. From the above data it is clear that the efficiency dropping Just after the oxygen injection is not as bad as water injection. Hence a moist free environment during preparing a layered structure, will play a vital role in improving the efficiencies of cells. Improving the efficiency of solution rorecessedmall molecule OPPoopssing thermal annealing. In this section we discuss about the insertion of (beFontainebleauBTBETunction into a ollighthousesackbones should lead to some interesting features for the photovoltaic applications. In addition, to enhance the light absorption properties by thermal annealing of active layers, and increase the hole mobility by inducing the self-organization of conjugated polymers or small molecules thereby increasing the efficiency of OPPoopsAll experimental conditions were carried under argon atmosphere with the use of standard scschlepsechniques. After being made the cell is having an effective area of 4mmomThe thermal annealing is carried out by directly placing the completed devices directly on a digitally controlled hotplate at various temperatures in a argon filled glove-box. The I-V characteristic curves of the photovoltaic cells are obtained by keKeith400 source measure unit. Results of the experiment with improved efficiencies is tabulated below: As we can see from the above three the normalized absorption region is high in particular range of wavelength. We can clearly see the LULUMPnd HOMO with their respective reduction and oxidation potential values. Following table gives the knowledge of effect of annealing on efficiency for different types of devices under different conditions. Hence annealing a device at appropriate temperature and under appropriate conditions will change the PCPACEfEfficiencyup to a significant extent. By combining two vacuum processed hetero Junctions to optimize the absorption power of OPPVCnd controlling the construction parameters thereby making them efficient. In this part of discussion, we have the concept of combining two vacuum processed single hetero junction organic solar cell with complementary absorption are described. The red bsabsorbingetero Junction consists of C6COnd a fluorinated zinc ptpathologicallyF4IFZnZinc thThateads to 0. 1-0. V open circuit voltage than the commonly used ZnZincFrom the manufacturing point of view, tandem concepts offer an advantage, due to serial connection of sub-cells the efficiency is increased by adding up voltages rather than currents. To increase the efficiency, we have to increase the absorption cross-section of the OPPVCFor absorption at longer wavelengths the fluorinated ptpatheticallyeriv ative (F4IFnZincis used as donor instead of ZnZincAs F4IFnZincs efficient in lowering the ionominationotential from 5. 1 eVveto. 46 eVeveue to the electron withdrawing character of the fluorine atoms. Higher fluorinated ptpathologicallytoms can be used as acceptors in organic solar cells. The absorption features of F4IFnZincn mixed layers with C6COre comparable to ZnZincexhibiting strong ababsorbencyn the red part of the spectrum peaking at 630 nmNMnd extending to above 800 nmNMThis is a good quality which is desired, as it increases the absorption coefficient of organic photovoltaic surface and thus increasing the efficiency. Heating the above mixed layer has the same effect that of common one but leads to an improvement in charge arairierensity. This can be seen through the mismatch of I-V characteristics. Hence here above we found out two more concepts of increasing the efficiencies. Now we further look into the dependence of efficiency on factors like light intensity, angle of illumination and temperature. For a OPPVCith a given efficiency, thickness and incident wavelength the most important factors on which we should concern about are the performance of the device under different illumination intensities for varying illumination angles at typical operating temperatures. 343429000449580Fromig. : The nfinfluencef illumination intensity on the device performance from 0. 5mMomcmCMo 310 mWmmmCMThe illumination is provided by halogen lamp kept at constant temperature of 25ICCheHereJsSCs directly proportional to lint over the complete range of illumination intensities. VoVoces increasing continuously with lint but below logarithmic value. FFIFhows weak maximum at lint?70mawmCMfter which it decreases by approximately 4% up to 31mawmCMThis shows the maximum power point to be mostly sub-line ar and the maximum efficiency approximately at 40mawcmCMFrom fig. : The influence of illumination intensity on the device performance roroom. 5mMomcmCMo 310 mWmmmCMThe illumination is provided by halogen lamp kept at constant temperature of 25ICCheHereJsSCs directly proportional to lint over the complete range of illumination intensities. VoVoces increasing continuously with lint but below logarithmic value. FFIFhows weak maximum at lint?70mawmCMfter which it decreases by approximately 4% up to 31mawmCMThis shows the maximum power cmCMGiven below is the calibrated data showing the dependence of illumination intensity on the device performance:leleptonsing a naunstructuredandwich processing. In this section we will see the structural dependence of OPPVCevice layers on efficiency. Researchers found that the efficiency of a device is almost tripled when naunstructuredandwich metal and plastic are used. These type of structures can collects and traps the light more effectively than any other. The nanotechnology is used to overcome the challenges that cause solar cells to lose energy. Challenges like light reflecting from the layered surface and inability of the cell to capture the light fully that enters in. But with the help of this NaAnnaaterial sandwich we can answer both the problems. The sandwich, which is generally called as sub-wavelength plplatonicavity. Have extraordinary characteristics of damping reflection and trapping light. Using this technique research studies have show us that only approximately 4% of the light is reflected and as much as 96% of the light is absorbed accounted for the increase in efficiency up to 52%. Above description is only for the direct sunlight(perpendicular light falling normal to the surface). This efficiency is much more for a solar cell surface upon which the light incident is at large angles i.Ie.EonOnloudy days and when cells not facing the light directly/ erreproductivelyBy capturing these light incident at large angles one can boost up the efficiency up to extra 81%, combining a total of 175% increase in efficiency. Thought the physics behind the innovation is complex the device structure is simple. The window layer(top layer) is extremely fine metal mesh and of the size of 30NMhick with each mesh having diameter of 17Mannnd 25NMpart. This mesh layer can even replace the ITTITayer. A picture of such naAnnaesh layer is shown below: The mesh window layer is placed very close to the bottom layer of the sandwich, the same metal film used in conventional solar cells. In between the two metal sheets is a thin strip of sesemiconductoraterial used in solar panels. It can be any type silicon, plastic or gallium arsenide although ChCohoseam used an 85-nanometer- thick plastic. The solar cells features the spacing of the mesh, the thickness of the sandwich, the diameter of the holes are all smaller than the wavelength of the light being collected. This is critical because light behaves in very unusual ways in sub- wavelength structures. ChCohoseam discovered that using these sub-wavelength structures allowed them to create a trap in which light enters, with almost no effleetingand does not leave, and hence efficiency is drastically can be increased. Here we will see some of the common factors like band gap of semiconductor, electric charge recombination and energy dissipation in the form of heat, which are limiting factors for power conversion efficiency of a solar cell. Light with less than the enenergyf band gap cannot be absorbed and cannot generate electricity inside the organic layer. Let say that the light with higher intensity and higher than the band gap is incident and generated the electricity inside the device and lets say that the charges aveaveeen generated. These generated charges if lost because of recombination; the electric current inside the device will decrease: and so the electric power of the cell will decrease. The relation between the maximum conversion efficiency and optical absorption edge are given in the following pipickHere: The red line represents the conventional theoretical limit of single-junction- inorganic cell; blue line represents the theoretical limit of the single-junction-organic solar cell; the black line represents the theoretical limit of the multi-]unction-organic cell. The theoretically calculated photoelectric conversion efficiency for a single junction- organic photovoltaic cell is about 21%. From the above picture we can see that for an appropriate range of optical absorption edge value only the maximum efficiency can be attained. Right side of pipicks the rough sketch of layered structure. Where, two active organic layers separate both the electrodes. By making molecules face to face by maintaining optimum donor acceptor relative positions. In this section we further precede our methods of improving the efficiency in organic solar cells aseasedn small molecules, and their dependence in structure at molecular levels. Researchers have shown that to transfer maximum energy more effectively inside of complex three dimensional OPPoopss to align the donor molecules face-on, rather than relative to acceptor or edge-on to the acceptors. We know that exexitedn energy particle created when light is incident on the material and got absorbed. This efficiency of a cell depends on this exexitedThis exexiteds found at the donor acceptor interface inside the cell. At interface exexitedreates power by itself converting into haharearriers that travel to the electrodes. Meanwhile inside at molecular level the atoms inside the donor acceptor levels itself mixes, cluster or both leading to the variances inside the domain leading to affect the conversion process and thereby affecting the efficiency. It is difficult for an individual to consider all changes at a time. 2525146001249680Buthen we consider the face-on orientation, which allows the favorable interactions for charge transfer and lessen the recombination loss can be thought of when efficiency is considered. The sample picture of face-on orientation eaeatingo favorable charge interactions is seen in the picture beside. OBBouthen we consider the face-on orientation, which allows the favorable interactions for charge transfer and lessen the recombination loss can be thought of when efficiency is considered. The sample picture of face-on orientation leading to favorable charge interactions is seen in the picture beside. By energy harvesting and improved storage methods. Most significant problem now a day to an organic photovoltaic industry facing is loss of energy. Saving, storing the dissipated energy will improve the efficiency more than nyNYther methods we adopted so far. Most of the dissipated energy is in the form of heat. Loss of energy is because of organic materials lack in properties to hold them up. Energy harvesting is a process by which ambient neenergys captured and converted into electricity. These energy harvesting includes ththermostaticphotovoltaic, piezoelectric materials. More the harvesting and storage material is efficient, more the efficiency of the solar cell. Solution processing of small molecules to improve efficiency by 6. 7% In this section we see that the solution processed small molecule organic solar cells an perform up to efficiencies ranging 6-8%. A combination of polymer design, morphology control, structural insight and device engineering lead us this much of efficiency. However solution processed small molecule BHBBCave their efficiencies below the polymeric ones. 33147005715 Normalized ababsorptionsvs.waWavelengthan be seen from adjacent fgfigures a result of solution processing. Normalized ababsorptionsvs.waWavelengthan be seen from adjacent figure as a result of solution processing. The component DIDIDs added to the solution to enhance the efficiency improving properties. We have a range of 0-1% v/v vixing.

The modern finance theory is based on the capital asset pricing model The WritePass Journal

The modern finance theory is based on the capital asset pricing model Abstract The modern finance theory is based on the capital asset pricing model AbstractIntroductionTheory2.1 Prospect Theory2.1.1Certainty Effect2.1.2 Reflection Effect2.1.3 Isolation Effect2.2 Behavioural Capital Asset Pricing Theory2.3 Behavioral Portfolio TheorySome Models3.1 DSSW Model3.2 BSV Model3.3 DHS Model3.4 HS ModelAnomalies4.1 Closed-end fund puzzle4.2 the equity premium puzzleConclusionReferenceRelated Abstract As some anomalies are hardly explained by the traditional finance, the behaviour finance is introduced. It was first introduced by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), which they presented the prospect theory. In fact, investors’ behaviour often violates the expected utility theory, some of them trade irrrationally. Then Shefrin and Statman (1994) base on the CAPM, and put investor sentiment into the model to make the BAPM. They thought noise traders and information traders would interact and influenced the price setting, including the noise traders’ behaviour in the BAPM let the asset pricing more precise. Another important theory is the behavioral portfolio theory. The theory states that when investors choose portfolios, they on the one hand want to be security, while on the other hand they potentially also want to reach aspiration levels. So it lets BPT investors to choose bonds and lottery tickets together come true. According to these phenomenon which happen to investorsâ €™ portfolio selection, many researchers give their explaination. Generally speaking, bahaviour finance is based on two theories, which is limits of arbitrage and investor sentiment. DSSW model is based on the former theory while BSW model, DHS model and HS model are based on the latter one. There are also some more models in the behaviour finance area. These models can explain some anomalies, such as Closed-end fund puzzle and the equity premium puzzle. In this paper these two anomalies would be treated as examples to explain how behaviour finance explain these anomalies. Introduction The modern finance theory is based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), Markowitz’s Portfolio Theory, Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). The model CAPM is introduced by Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965), and Black (1972). It provides the pricing mechanism of capital assets and the decision factor of risk isÃŽ ²(the relationship between firm returns and market returns). These theories are based on the Efficiency market hypothesis (EMH) and the CAPM can be used to test the EMH. While its analysis framework confined within the scope of rational analysis, when more and more anomalies arise in the market, they are hard to be explained by standard finance which is based on the EMH. In this situation, the questioning of modern finance beginned when the prospect theory is introduced by Kahneman and Tversky (1979). And then the behavioural finance is introduced to explain these snomalies. The definition of behavioural finance is that â€Å"Behavioural finance- that is, finance from a broader social science perspective including psychology and sociology- is now one of the most vital research programs, and it stands in sharp contradiction to much of efficient markets theory.† (Shiller, 2003 p83) It is a Marginal subject and opposite to the traditional finance, and it tries to explain the importance of investors’ emotion and mental mistakes, which would influence their decision-making process (Ricciardi and Simon, 2000). At first, behaviour finance is marginalized as â€Å" anomalies literature† (Frankfurter and McGoun, 2000).it has been researched for a long time, and then it has been accepted after more and more journals focusing on the discussion of anomalies. Section 2 of the paper explains three main theories of behaviour finance, which are prospect theory, behavioural capital asset pricing theory and behavioral portfolio theory. Section 3 presents some models which provided by the behaviour finance. Section 4 discusses the application of behaviour finance to explain anomalies. Section 6 concludes. Theory 2.1 Prospect Theory Prospect theory is the one of the most important theory in the behavioural finance. Investors   usually do not perform rationally, and prospect theory handles this issue. Expected Utility Theory is a kind of desceiptive model which is used to make decisions under risks, and the result is a criteria for investors to choose. While a large number of experimental research shows that investors choices are inconsistent with the basic tenets of utility theory. Kahneman and Tversky (1979) classify these differences into some areas, which is certainty effect, reflection effect and isolation effect. 2.1.1Certainty Effect Certainty effect is people often underestimate outcomes which are probable when compare outcomes which are received with certainty (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979). In order to demonstrate this issue, Allais (1953) gives a series of choice problems. On of the problem is that: Option 1: 2,500 with probability   0.33 2,400 with probability   0.66 0 with probability  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   0.01 Option 2: 2,400 with certainty The question is which option would give you the best chance to maximize your profits? The result shows that 82% people choose the option 2 among 72 people, most of them violated expected utility theory. According to the expected utility theory, the profit in option 1 (2500*0.33+ 2400*0.66+ 0*0.01= 2409) is greater than the option 2 (2400), while people prefer choosing the profit which is certain rather than choosing the profit which is risk. 2.1.2 Reflection Effect While when gains are replaced by loses, the result would be that the risk preference of people is contrary to the positive prospects, it transfers from risk aversion to risk seeking, and this is labeled as the reflection effect. For example, 92% people choose a probobility of 80% to loss 4000 when they are offered another choice which is a certainty loss of 3000. This example also shows that not only the positive domain violate the expected utility theory, but also the negative domain violate it in the same manner. 2.1.3 Isolation Effect When people choose one investment between alternatives, they usually exclude the common factors to consider, and focus on their different components. This division would lead to different reslults, for the same pair of investments can be divided into common and distinctive components in many different ways. This phenomenon is called the isolation effect. For example there is two-stage choice problem, the first stage is that people have a probability of 0.25 to go to the second stage, and in the second stage, you have to have a choice between the winning 3,000 of certainty and winning 4,000 of 0.8 probobility. The result states that 78% of 141 people choose the former one. While in this game, people should have had a choice between 0.25* 0.8= 0.2 possibility to win 4,000, and a 0.25* 1.0= 0.25 possibility to win 3,000, and this choice was demotrated by Allais (1953) that a marjor of people would choose a 0.2 chance to win 4,000. so in this situation, people ignore the first stage and based on the second stage to choose prospect. Prospect theory divides the choice process into two phases, one is editing and the other one is evaluation. Editing phase is used to analyse the options in order to get the simplified result, evaluation is to evaluate the edited prospects and choose one which has highest value. Editing includes four operations which are coding, combination, segregation and cancellation. According to the prospect theory, if a prospect is regular (p + q 1, or x ≠¥ 0 ≠¥ y, or x ≠¤ 0 ≠¤ y ), which also means neither strictly positive nor strictly negative, the equation would be: (1)  Ã‚   V(x, p; y, q) = Ï€(p) v(x) +Ï€(q) v(y) In this equation, the total value of an edited prospect is denoted V, and   it is expressed by two scales. The first scaleÏ€is connected with each possibility p and the decision weight isÏ€(p), the other scale is v, which the outcome is v(x) with a number x. the value of prospect in Equation (1) is the same as the result of expected utility theory. While if the prospects are strictly positive or strictly negative, they must use another rule. When prospects are in the editing phase, they are often divided into two parts, which is the riskless part and the risky part. The evaluation would use the next equation: If p + q = 1 and either x y 0 or x y 0, then (2)  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   V(x, p; y, q) = v(y) +Ï€(p) [v(x) – v(y)] It means that the value of a strictly positive or strictly negative prospect is the same as the sum of the value of the riskless part and the value-difference between the outcomes multipling the weight associated with the more extreme outcome. Investors evaluation base on the value function and weighting function (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979). Prospect theory uses value function to explain the same meaning of utility. There are two arguments in the value function, the first one is the asset position which can be treated as reference point, and the other one is the magnitude of the change from the reference point. Value function normally concave for positive outcome and convex for negative outcome, and the losses is steeper than the gains. When the value approachs to the reference point, the value fuction is steepest, and the whole value fuction is S-shaped. Decision weights are usually different from the probability axioms, investors often overestimate the small probabilities, this situation often happens in gambling and insurance. While for other situations, decision weights are commonly lower than the corresponding probabilities However, there are two drawbacks existing in the prospect theory. Firstly, it uses the value function and weighting function to evaluate theory, while there are no specific functions and instead using examples to explain. It is a kind of experimental process. Secondly, there is no specific standard for reference point, it makes the theory not so pricise. 2.2 Behavioural Capital Asset Pricing Theory The behavioural capital asset pricing theory is based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the difference is that the behavioural capital asset pricing theory consider the behaviour of traders. It focuses on the market which noise traders and information traders affect each other. Information traders are traders in the condition of CAPM, they obey the Bayesian learning rule to evaluate the returns and most importantly, they never make cognitive errors. However, noise traders are contrary to information traders, they commit cognitive errors and break the Bayesian rules. These two traders interact and determine the asset price. Market is efficient when information traders are dominant in the market, while if dominant traders are noise traders, market is inefficient. What is the difference between markets in which prices are efficient and markets in which prices are not efficient? The main difference is that there is a single driver property existing the market which prices are efficient. As Shefrin and Statman (1994, p345) said, â€Å"This single driver drives the mean-variance efficient frontier, the return distribution of the market portfolio, the premium for risk, the term structure, and the price of options.† It satisfies the minimun information which required to cause the changes to the outcome distribution of the market portfolio. While a second driver is introduced to the market by noise traders, and it let the price far away from the price efficiency. They often creat some abnormal returns to particular securities. The expected return of security is determined by behavioural ÃŽ ², which is the ÃŽ ² of tangent mean variance efficient asset portfolio. Noise traders’ action let the relationship between security returns and bet a weaker. While at the same time, they built a positive relationship between abnormal returns and beta (Chopra, Lakonishok, and Ritter, 1992). When the prices are efficient in the market, price efficiency protects particular noise traders. At that time, the function of noise traders is to rise the trading volume. However, if the prices are not efficient, new information cannot be a sufficient statistic. Yet prices, volatility, the premium for risk, option prices and the term structure are still influenced by old information. Noise traders affect the return of securities through the term structure and they can arouse inefficient inversion which exists in the term structure. The behaviourÃŽ ² is introduced by the behavioural asset pricing model (BAPM), when the noise traders are included in the model, the behaviourÃŽ ² represents a lower risk than the traditionalÃŽ ². The BAPM research a series of issues such as risk premium, the term structure, and option prices in the situation of existing noise traders. The BAPM not only considers the performance characteristics of value, but also includes the characteristics of utility, therefore, on the one hand it has to accept the market efficiency when considering the unbeatable market, on the other hand it must reject the market efficiency when consider the irrational behaviours. This contradiction lead the finance to further research. 2.3 Behavioral Portfolio Theory The behavioural portfolio theory (BPT) is introduced by Shefrin and Statman (2000) and it is based on the SP/A theory (Lopes, 1987) and Safety-First Portfolio theory (Roy, 1952). Roy’s (1952) safety-first theory and Markowitz’s (1952a) mean-variance portfolio theory are introduced at the same year, however their opinion are different to the Friedman-Savage puzzle. The former theory is consistent with the puzzle while the latter one is not. SP/A theory is a psychological theory and it has been a choice framework. Security, potential and aspiration are the meaning of letters SP/A and they also reflect investors’ choice under uncertainty. The efficient frontier of BPT is different from the mean-variance efficient frontier, and the optimal portfolios of BPT and CAPM are not the same. BPT investors think about the expected wealth when they select portfolios. On the one hand, they want portfolios to be security, on the other hand they potentially want to reach aspiration levels. So BPT investors combine bonds and lottery tickets together. The BPT is classified into two versions, a single mental account version (BPT-SA) and a multiple mental account version (BPT-MA). Their differences are that BPT-SA investors use a single mental account to manage their portfolios while BPT-MA investors use several mental accounts to integrate their portfolios. So BPT investors are the same as investors in the Friedman-Savage puzzle, they both present risk averse and risk seeking. They buy risk-free investments for the low aspiration mental account and buy speculative bonds for the high aspiration mental account. BPT-SA investors treat the portfolio as a whole like mean-variance investors, and they also take covariances into consideration. So the framework of choosing portfolio are similar between BPT-SA and mean-variance theory, the difference is that their efficient portfolios are not the same. Portfolios in the BPT-MA is like layered pyramids, and every layer has its own aspiration level. The bottom layer is designed to protect investors from poverty and the top layer let investors have a chance becoming rich. BPT-MA investors are quite different from BPT-SA investors, they ignore covariances and treat portfolios separately in to different mental accounts. Because BPT-MA investors ignore covariance between layers, there is a risk that they may put the same security but with different positions into different layers. The similar evidence is provided by Jorion (1994), he finds that when investors invest globally, they put securities and currencies into different layers of the pyramid, while he thinks the overlay structure is not so useful, because it overlooks covariances between securities and currencies and it leads to 40 basis points loss of efficiency. Some Models 3.1 DSSW Model Behaviour finance is based on two theories, which is limits of arbitrage and investor sentiment. According to the tradition finance, arbitrage plays a key role in achieving the market efficiency. Its basic point is that even irrational investors exist in the market and let prices deviate their value, rational investors would eliminate their influence to prices, and finally prices and the value are consistent. However, behaviour finance thinks arbitrage is not unlimited, one of the reason is that arbitrageurs are risk averse and have resonably short horizons, its posibility to be dominant is small. For example, when arbitrageurs sell assets short, they first must know noise traders are bullish and they must be bullish in the future, And then noise traders would buy back the stock. While it is hard to predict noise traders thought, so arbitrageurs have to bear the risk and this would limit their willingness to take position against noise traders. The model consists of noise traders and sophisticated investors. There are some investors not following economists’ advice to invest, and they only trust their own research. So Black (1986) called these investors who have no private information and irrationally act â€Å"noise traders†. Noise traders obtain lots of information which comes from technical analysts, economic consultants and stockbrokers and they falsely believe this information is useful to predict the future price of risky asset. So noise traders choose portfolios according to such incorrect beliefs Alpert and Raiffa (1982). On the contrary, sophisticated traders make use of noise traders’ irrational misperceptions. They buy stocks when noise traders depress prices, while they sell stocks when noise traders think prices would be bullish. According to the risk of noise traders, the model can explain some financial market anomalies. These anomalies are the excess volatility of and mean reversion in stock market price, the Mehra-Prescott equity premium, the closed-end fund puzzles and some other anomalies. However, there is a drawback existing in the model, which is that it can not explain how investors make decisions. The assumption is that investors base on the behaviour portfolio theory to choose their portfolios, according to the different layers, they make different investment choices even for same assets. 3.2 BSV Model A huge amount of empirical evidence have shown two kinds of pervasive phenomenon, which are underreaction and overreaction of stock prices. Underreaction means that investors predict higher average return than the actual average return when good news are announced. in other words, the stock underreacts to the good news. if the average return comes from a series of announcements of good news and it is lower when compared with the average return coming from a series of bad news announcements, it is defined as overreaction (Barberis, Shleffer, and Vishny, 1998). BSV model is introduced by Barberis, Shleffer, and Vishny (1998). Investors often present two phenomena, which is conservatism and representativeness heuristic. Conservatism can be defined that people often react slowly when people encounter new evidence (Edwards, 1968). When investors face evidence which has high weigh but low strength, they do not care much about the low strenngh and react moderately to the evidence. While if the evidence has high strength but low weight, they overreact it like representativeness. Representativeness heuristic is the second important psychological phenomenon (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). It means that investors focus on recent patterns in the data while give little weight to the properties of the population which generates the data (Fama, 1998). In the situation of representativeness heuristic, if a company performs well in the past and has a high growth, investor would ignore the truth that this well perform would hardly repeat itself. The result would be that they overestimate the value of the company and be disappointed when the expected growth does not come true. The BSV model bases on the two phenomena, and explain how investors decision-making model leads to the market price deviating the efficient market. The model also deals with the problem why arbitrage is limited, the reason it that investors’ sentiment are hard to forcast. The more extreme of investorsà ¢â‚¬â„¢ sentiment, the more further of price away from the actual value. It is known that earnings are a random walk, while investors falsely classify them into two earnings regimes. They underreact or overreact to a change in earnings, these lead to short-term momentum in stock returns and long-term reversal. The BSV model perform well on the anomalies it was designed to explain, while the forcast of long-term return reversal is not so good. 3.3 DHS Model Daniel et al. (1998) also provide a model which includes investor sentiment to deal with the situation of overreaction and underreaction. They try to use psychological theory to support their framework and classify investors’ sentiment into overconfidence and biased self-attribution. Overconfidence is defined that investors often overestimate their forecast ability when they have more significant information than others, so they often overlook their prediction errors. Biased self-attribution is investors feel confident when they find public information is the same as their information, but the confidence would not decrease proportionately when public information is opposite to their private information. According to the DHS model, it has been known that investors overreact to private information, while on the contrary investors underreact to public information signals. When public information signals eliminate behaviour bias, this would lead to short-term momentum of stock returns while long-run reversal. The model can reconcile this situation, it transfers the wealth from imperfect rational traders (e.g. noise traders) to rational traders and then price setting is dominated by rational traders. While even in this situation, rational traders could not be predominance in the long term. De Long et al. (1991) state that noise traders are risk averse and they prefer investing more money to risky, high expected return assets, if they overconfident about the true information signals, they would obtain more profits than those rrational investors. The forcasts of DHS are similar with BSV, they share the same empirical successes and failures. And this comment can also apply to Hong and Stein (1997). 3.4 HS Model The model is provided by Hong and Stein (1999) in 1999, it also called the unified behaviour model. The model is different from BSV model and DHS model, it classifies agents into newswatchers and momentum traders. Each of them are restricted rational. Newswatchers making investment dicisions base on private information signals of movement of future values. Their drawback is that they do not use the current or past prices to choose portfolios. While on the contrary, momentum traders mainly base on the movement of past prices changes to invest. However, they also have limitations, which their forecasts should be â€Å"simple† function of the history of past prices. In this model, there is one more assumption, which is private information would spread slowly in the newswatcher group. The underreaction and overreaction are based on the private information spread slowly across the newswatcher population. As first, newswatchers underreact to the private information, then momentum tr aders try to make use of it to arbitrage, while it leads to overreaction. Anomalies 4.1 Closed-end fund puzzle There are some anomalies existing in the financial market, one of them is closed-end fund puzzle. The definition of it is that: â€Å"The closed-end fund puzzle is the empirical finding that closed-end fun shares typically sell at prices not equal to the per share market value of assets the fund holds† (Shleifer and Thaler, 1992, p. 75). The puzzle is that closed-end funds are sold with 10 percent premium at first, while after around 120 days, the premium of 10 percent moves to a discount of over 10 percent (Weiss, 1989). And then discounts fluctuate over the period of funds, they would narrow and then disappear until the closed-end funds terminate. This proposition has been researched in the past, they pointed out that the value of securities maybe overstate when compared with their true value of the assets. And they provided three explainations, which are agency costs, tax liabilities and illiquidity of assets. Generally speaking, agency costs are constant, it cannot let prices fluctuate. Moreover, it even cannot explain why rational invettors buy funds at a premium initially and finally sell them at a discount. Restricted stock and block discount hypotheses are two versions of asset illiquidity, they explain the reason to sell stocks at a discount, that is, trading fees are expensive. The tax liabilities’ explaination is that the gain tax has included in the funds, so discounts happen. while these three standard explanations cannot explain the puzzle together or separately. Another explaination is provided by De long, Shleifer, Summers and Waldmann (1990) (DSSW). They develop DSSW model to explain rational investors and noise traders interact in financial markets, and the key point is that noise traders’ sentiment are unpredictable. So the noise traders’ sentiment influence the demand of closed-end fund shares and then influence the changes in discounts. The model makes two hypotheses, they assume rational investors are short horizons, they focus on the interim resale of prices rather than the present values of dividends. The other assumption is that noise traders’ sentiment is stochastic and hard to predicted by rational investors. If investors are optimistic about the return of funds, funds will be sold at premia or only a little discounts. While if noise traders are pessimistic, it will result of a large discounts. There are two kinds of risk when investors hold closed-end funds, which are the risk of holding the fund’s portfolio and the risk of noise traders’ sentiment causing prices changes. If noise traders become continuously pessimistic about closed-end funds, this risk would be systematic. And then its influence will not be restricted in the closed-end funds. According to this aituation, it is easy to find that holding the fund is risker than holding its portfolio, and then prices of closed-end funds wou ld be lower than their true value. There is a fact that closed-end funds are mainly traded by individual investors. And individual investors also invest small stocks. According to the empirical evidence which researched by Shleifer and Thaler (1992), it shows that the performance of small stocks also influence the changes of discounts. If the small stocks do well, the discounts of closed-end funds would be narrow. 4.2 the equity premium puzzle When researchers observed the economy of the United States during 1889 to 1979, they found that the annual return of stocks was seven percent, however, the return of treasury bills was less than 1 percent after 1926. Mehra and Prescott (1985) stated that this huge gap causes from the huge difference of risk aversion. They explained the high equity premium with having excess of 30 risk aversion. While the actual figure observed is only close to 1. so it is a problem that why is the equity premium so large. Benartzi and Thaler (1995) gived two concepts which comes from the psychology of decision-making. The first one is loss aversion, and the other one is mental accounting. Loss aversion is similar with the Kahneman and Tversky’s (1979) descriptive theory. It becomes more sensitive to loss money rather than increase wealth. It is also opposite to the expected utility theory. Mental accounting is defined that â€Å"mental accounting refers to the implicit methods individuals use to code and evaluate financial outcomes: transactions, investments, gambles, etc† (Benartzi and Thaler, 1995, p.74). Investors are loss aversion, so if they invest stocks, they would care about the security of portfolios. While stock prices are fluctuated, frequent performance evaluation would make investors feel loss. So stocks are less attracted by investors. Only when the return of stocks keeps a high level, investors would replace bonds with stocks. Barberis, Huang and Santos (2001) explain this puzzle in another aspect and they introduce a model. The model not only bases on the onsumption but also bases on fluctuations of investors’ loss averse. As it is known to all, investors are sensitive to their decrease of wealth rather than to increase. And The changes of loss aversion depends on investors’ prior investment performance. If investors are profit in the prior period, they would become less loss averse. While if the loss is over the profit, or there existing loss in the prior period, investors would become more loss averse. According to this situation ,it needs a large premium to let investors hold stocks. However, the conclusion is made under some conditions. Firstly, researchers only use a single risky asset to do research for the sake of simplicity. So in the real economy which has lots of risky assets, it is not easy to identify what investors are loss averse about. Another one is that it is not clear to what range the preferences can interpret financial data and risky gambles. Conclusion The behaviour finance as a Marginal subject has been developed quickly during the recent years. It combines the finance, psychology, sociology and anthropology to explain finance. According to the empirical research of the finance market, some anomalies cannot be explained by the traditional finance. While the behaviour finance use a unique aspect to systematically explain these anomalies, such as Closed-end fund puzzle and the equity premium puzzle. compared with the traditional finance, the behaviour finance does not have a complete systematic theory. However, the prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979), the behavioural capital asset pricing theory (Shefrin and Statman, 1994) and the behavioral portfolio theory (Shefrin and Statman, 2000) constitute the fundamental systematic behaviour finance theory. They introduce an evidence that investors not always perform as rational traders, there are a part of traders perform irrrationally. Traders do not obey the expected utility theo ry. Then talking about the prices setting, the original CAPM model which is used to set prices of asset is not appropriate, noise traders often commit cognitive errors and their actions would influence the price setting. So the BAPM model which includes the investors influence can make prices more real. The main point of BPT theory is that investors choose portfolios basing their different layers of needs. The bottom layer is designed to protect investors from poverty and the top layer let investors have a chance becoming rich. In order to explain anomalies, some models have been introduced. For example, DSSW, BSV, DHS and HS models. They investigate the influence of investors’ sentiment from two aspects, which are limits of arbitrage and investor sentiment. However, the behaviour finance has its inherent drawbacks. As Fama (1998) states that even the behaviour finance can explain some anomolies existing in the capital market, it does not mean market efficiency should be abandoned. The data shows that the frequency of overreaction of stock prices is the same as underreaction, so it can be seen that anomalies are chance results in the market efficiency hypothesis. Moreover, anomalies existing in the long-term return are fragile, they tend to be a reasonable changes. Behaviour finance is the sum of anomolies which EMH and CAPM cannot explain, And it does not have its own independent evidence. So the development of behaviour finance needs further research. Reference Shiller, R. J. 2003. From efficient markets theory to behavioral finance. Journal of Economic Perspectives 17, pp. 83-104. Ricciardi, V. and Simon, H. K. 2000. What is behavioral finance. Business, Education and Technology Journal, fall. Frankfurter, G. M., McGoun, E. G. 2000. Market efficiency and behavioral finance: the nature of the debate. The Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets 1, pp. 200–210. Allais, M. 1953. Le Comportement de 1Homme Rationnel devant le Risque, Critique des Postulats et Axiomes de 1Ecole Americaine. Econometrica 21, pp. 503-546. Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. 1979. Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47(2), pp. 263-292. Chopra, N., Lakonishok, J. and Ritter, J. 1992. Performance measurement methodology and the question of whether stocks overreact. Journal of Financial Economics 31, pp. 235-268. Shefrin, H. and Statman. M. 1994. Behavioral capital asset pricing theory. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 29(3), pp. 323-349. Lopes, L. 1987. Between hope and fear: the psychology of risk. Advances in Experimental   Social Psychology 20, pp. 255-295 Roy, A. D. 1952. Safety-First and the holding of assets. Econometrica 20, pp. 431-449. Markowitz, H. 1952. Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance 6, pp. 77-91. Jorion, P. 1994. Mean-Variance analysis of currency overlays. Financial Analysts Journal 50, pp. 48-56. Shefrin, H. and Statman, M. 2000. Behavioural portfolio theory. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 35(2), pp. 127-151. De Long, J. B., Shleifer, A., Summers, L. H. and Waldmann, R. J. 1990. Noise trader risk in financial markets. Journal of Political Economy 98(4), pp. 703-738. Alpert, M. and Raiffa, H. 1982. A progress report on the training of probability assessors. In Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, edited by Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic,   and Amos Tversky. Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press. Samuelson, P. A. 1958. An exact consumption-loan model of interest with or without the social contrivance of money. J.P.E. 66, pp. 467-82. Black, F. 1986. Noise. Journal of Finance 41, pp. 529-543. Edwards, W. 1968. Conservatism in human information processing. In: Kleinmutz, B. (Ed.), Formal Representation of Human Judgment. John Wiley and Sons, New York, pp. 17-52. Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. 1974. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185, pp. 1124-1131. Barberis, N., Shleifer, A. and Vishny, R. 1998. A   model of investor sentiment. Journal of Financial Economics 49, pp. 307-343. Fama, E. F. 1998. Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance. Journal of Financial Economics 49, pp. 283-306. De Long, J. B., Shleifer, A., Summers, L. H. and Waldmann, R. J. 1991. The survival of noise traders in financial markets. Journal of Business 64, pp. 1-20. Daniel, K., Hirshleifer, D. and Subrahmanyam, A. 1998. Investor psychology and security market under and overreactions. Journal of Finance 53(6), pp. 1839-1885. Weiss, K. 1989. The post-offering price performance of closed-end funds. Financial Management Autumn, pp. 57-67. Shleifer, A. and Thaler, R. H. 1991. Investor sentiment and the closed- end fund puzzle. Journal of Finance 46(1), pp. 75-109. Mehra, R. and Prescott, E. R. 1985. The equity premium puzzle. Journal of Monetary Economics, pp. 145-161. Benartzi, S. and Thaler, R. H. 1995. Myopic loss aversion and the equity puzzle. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 110(1), pp. 73-92. Barberis, N., Huang, M. and Santos, T. 2001. Prospect theory and asset prices. The Quarterly Journal of Economics February. Hong, H. and Stein, J. C. 1999. A unified theory of underreaction, momentum trading, and overreaction in asset markets. Journal of Finance 54(6), pp. 2143-2184.

What is Ford companys alignment and bargaining power of buyers Essay

What is Ford companys alignment and bargaining power of buyers - Essay Example What is Ford company’s alignment and bargaining power of buyers? The bargaining power of buyers’ for Ford can be examined as relatively low or moderate. Conceptually, the bargaining power of buyers is presumed to depend on various industrial factors ranging from the availability of substitute products to the pricing strategies undertaken by the company or the consumer purchasing power affecting the demand for the product/service on offer. As explained in Porter, the aggregate volume of buyers availed by the company also determines the degree of their bargaining power, apart from the facts that the products are undifferentiated in the market, a low switching cost prevails in the market With the aim to verify the same code of conduct in order to maintain better working conditions and protect the employees’ human rights throughout the chain, Ford provides training as required by the suppliers and inquires them to provide internal training to safeguard understanding of the codes. Ford also assists in developing the process of compliance to support the codes in its supply chain sustainability management as its â€Å"macro-management† strategy. The business framework also intends to inspire suppliers to accept and impose identical code of performance within Ford in the â€Å"encouraging† phase. To manage the performance in this phase, each supplier has been assigned with an executive to lead the expansion of the code and enable them to report the growth to Ford in response to the traditional metrics. During the stages of progression of the suppliers, the company also delivers considerable support, contacts and resources in order to assist the suppli er to improve its program. This commitment further proves to be highly significant for both the business and its stakeholders in reducing the operational risks, which could hamper the production to a substantial extent. Apparently, the alignment certifies accountable behavior throughout the ‘Automotive Supply Chain’ establishing interlinked and interdependent sustainability goals, through the three phase expansion process of â€Å"macro-managing†, â€Å"encouraging† and â€Å"expecting† (Business for Social Responsibility, â€Å"Internal Alignment: An Essential Step to Establishing Sustainable Supply Chains†). The final phase of â€Å"expecting† focuses to share the same sustainability goals to have greater expectancy throughout the supply chain. The company has therefore been applying a vigorous procedure to ensure the effectiveness of these stages. Through this procedure of Aligned business framework, almost 24% of Ford’s supp liers have been successful to meet the benchmark performances, which are to maintain the codes of conduct and the standard internationally throughout its supply chain. It is worth mentioning in this context that with the implementation of Aligned Business Framework business model, Ford has been able to increase its cost-effectiveness, simultaneously raising the quality features of its suppliers. The alignment also increases the innovation and reduces operational risks by way of improving the working conditions to a profitable extent (Corporate Ford, Creating a Sustainable Supply Chain: Strong Relationships, Shared Commitment, and Capacity Building†). Thus, it shall be rationally affirmed that the implementation of the aligned business model framework in Ford, aided it along with its suppliers to gain higher degree of sustainability and operational efficiency, not only in terms of costs and profitability but also in the form of legal coordination with the business partners thro ughout. WHAT IS FORD COMPANY’S BARGAINING POWER OF BUYERS? The bargaining power of buyers’

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HRA335; Mod. 8 - Case Study- Hiring FBI Agents - Essay Example The implementation of multiple hurdle approach is most pertinent when the training activities are considerably long and expensive owing to various types of complexities (Smith & Angie, 2011). In relation to the selection procedures in FBI, the implementation of an effective set of multiple hurdle approach can be considered as an effective technique to select and recruit appropriate as well as flawless applicants for the agent posts. With reference to case, it has been observed that the recruitment and selection of agents in FBI validates a series of assessment methods while making any hiring decisions. In this regard, the implementation of an effective multiple hurdle approach will enable the department to recruit successfully, as the job roles of the agent involves various types of uncertain situations associated with different criminal activities (Phillips & Gully, 2012). However, the implementation of the approach also identified to pose certain limitations, as applicants might not qualify in each step of the assessment consecutively. The lengthy process in the assessment approach may lead to create negative attitude and behavioral characteristics of applicants due to a number of hurdles in the selection process. The selection technique in the multiple hurdle assessment approach tends to involve a wide number of assessment activities. The primary objectives of the selection approach is to clearly identify the capability of applicants in terms of managing capabilities or their ability to make effective decisions concerning various types of uncertain situations. In this regard, the approach involves multiple phases in selection procedure prior to make final hiring decisions of the applicants for any specified job roles (Smith & Angie, 2011). According to the observation of the case, it can be ascertained that the selection process in FBI involves a number of stages

Martha Stewart Lost Reputation Essay Example for Free

Martha Stewart Lost Reputation Essay Martha Stewart places her name on her products. She becomes the face of her company and the voice of her brand. When her personal misconduct occurred, she made her company vulnerable and risky as well. This case study examines how Martha Stewart managed her corporate communication when her public image and reputation were tarnished on trial for alleged insider trading scandal. The trial not only led her to prison but also hurt her brand equity. The study shows that Stewart’s early response to her crisis demonstrated lack of situation awareness. In the beginning of her investigation, she kept her public persona intact, ignoring or downplaying her role in it. As a result, what Stewart called â€Å"a small personal matter† later became a full -blown crisis. If she had managed her communication in a more timely manner, the magnitude of her crisis might have been minimized. This article also provides detailed insights for organizations to learn from her crisis response strategies. Keywords: Organizational crisis, Crisis communication, Image restoration 1. Introduction The personalities of strong business leaders can help shape and enhance their corporate image. In some cases, the leaders become the virtual icon of the corporate brand, lendi ng their personal prestige to the brand and personifying the company. They can also threaten the company when they are involved in a scandal. In this situation, the consequences for the company can be critical as in the Martha Stewart’s insider trading crisis in the United States. The crisis management scholar, Roux-Dufort (2000) points out that corporate crises as â€Å"a privileged moment during which to understand things differently† (p. 26). As such, there is a growing body of literature on organizational learning in the wake of corporate crisis (Mitroff, 2002; Shrivastava, 1998). The Stewart case, in particular, drew the attention of media for years. The crisis of Martha Stewart’s insider trading raised the issue about the Martha Stewart’s multiplatform franchise; that is, the media world and homemaking business are intricately interwoven with her persona. Stewart’s empire has an impressive business synergy as shown by her TV programs that promote her magazines, her website which sells her products, and her p roducts which are a link to her TV programs. She is the face, voice and personality behind the brand and, thus, the two – Stewart and the brand – are inseparable. After Stewart’s personal misconduct, the interlocking nature of her business proved to be vulnerable and risky. Moreover, Stewart’s crisis had both legal and public relations components (Jerome, Moffitt, Knudsen, 2007). Allegations of insider trading against Martha Stewart led to her imprisonment. Her strategic plan in response to the insider trading accusations and the media attention su rrounding this crisis left Stewart trying to take action to restore her image. In a sense, it is important to understand how Stewart herself and her company managed their corporate communication when her public image and reputation were tarnished under the investigation of the insider trading scandal. This article explores how the high profile iconic Martha Stewart responded when confronted with an organizational crisis that threatened existence. It also provides detailed insights for organizations to learn from her crisis response strategies. 2. Background of Martha Stewart’s Insider Trading Beginning with the 1982 publication of her book Entertaining, Martha Stewart made a name for herself as a homemaking diva. In September 1997, Stewart became chairperson, president, and CEO of her new company, Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia. Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia has been listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol MSO since 1999. As the chief of MSO, Stewart used her name and face to make connections with various businesses including a line of housewares, television shows, radio channels, magazines and a series of books on entertaining. On December 27, 2001, Stewart sold 3,928 shares of her ImClone stock worth US$228,000 the day before the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) rejected approval of Erbitux, ImClone’s anti -cancer drug. By selling ahead of the FDA rejection, Stewart received about US$45,000 more than if she had sold the stocks later. Compared to her wealth, it was certainly an insignificant sum and in fact, during her Larry King Live interview, she said it was â€Å"miniscule, really, about 0.006 percent of my net worth† (Four nier, 2004). Stewart had denied any wrongdoing, insisting she did not receive any advance knowledge from Sam Waksal, the founder and CEO of ImClone about the decision on Erbitux (Pollack, 2002). Instead, her sale of ImClone stock was part of a predetermined plan to sell if shares fell below US$60. Later, Stewart was officially indicted on charges of securities fraud and obstructing justice related to her sale of ImClone stock on March 5, 2004. Judge Cedarbaum dismissed the securities fraud charge against S tewart, saying prosecutors had failed to present enough evidence on the issue (Masters White, 2004). However, obstruction of justice, charges of conspiracy, and making false statements remained. Stewart served a five-month prison sentence between October 8, 2004 and March 4, 2005 for these charges. On August 7, 2006, Martha Stewart reached an agreement with the securities’ regulators over the insider-trading civil charges and agreed to pay US$195,000 to settle a five-year legal battle. 3. Literature Review Crisis events can and do strike organizations of all types. Every kind of organization, from larger organizations to small family owned businesses, have the potential of being a victim of crisis (Seeger, Sellnow, Ulmer, 2003). In many circumstances, crisis immediately raises questions from an organization’s many different publics (Marra, 1998). In this view, for an organization to manage the effects of a crisis it must communicate to both internal and external stakeholders. Ulmer, Sellnow, and Seeger (2007) suggest all crises involve the general communication strategies of reducing uncertainty, responding to the crisis, resolving it, and learning from it. The ability to communicate quickly and effectively is clearly an important component of successfu l crisis management. Effective crisis communication can not only defuse or eliminate crisis, but it can sometimes bring an organization a more positive reputation than before the crisis occurred (Kauffman, 2005). On the other hand, Marra (1998) argues if an organization fails to respond to a crisis in the correct manner, a bad situation can be made worse. Hence, crisis communication strategies can substantially diminish the harm caused by a crisis or magnify the harm if mismanaged. In this study, the stream of crisis response models from communication scholars and public relations professionals (Benoit, 1995; Coombs, 1999, 2007) are utilized as the theoretical framework to interpret the crisis response strategies that Martha Stewart employed in her insider trading crisis. According to Benoit (1995), firms or individuals may take preventative and restorative approaches to image problems. Five strategies (i.e., denial, evasion of responsibility, reduction of the offensiveness of the act , corrective action, and mortification) make up the rhetoric or image repair discourse. Each of these strategies has a set of tactics within them. Denial is the strategy employed when the rhetor simply chooses to deny the actions he is being accused of or shift the blame from the organization to outside individuals or agencies. The second strategy is evasion of responsibility is the strategy that the rhetor can blame circumstances beyond his control. It consists of four possible tactics: provocation, defeasibility, accident and good intentions. Benoit’s third major image restoration strategy, occurs when the rhetor attempts to reduce the degree of offensiveness experienced by the accuser. To this end, Benoit includes six tactics: bolstering, minimization, differentiation, transcendence, attacking the accuser, and compensation. The fourth category of the typology is corrective action, which attempts to correct the situation rather than counterbalance it. The final image restoration strategy, mortification, requires the rhetor to take responsibility for the action and to issue an apology. Benoit and colleagues have applied the model to a variety of different crisis situations. For instance, Benoit and Brinson (1994) analyzed ATT’s defense following an interruption of its long-distance service in New York in September of 1991. Initially, ATT tried to shift blame to low-level workers. As the complete story emerged, however, ATT apologized for the interruption (mortification) and began to bolster its image by stressing its commitment to excellence, the billions of dollars invested in service, and the quality of its employees. Finally, ATT promised corrective action and introduced a comprehensive review of its operations to anticipate and prevent further problems. It also stressed its commitment to providing excellent service and its willingness to spend billions of dollars to do so. Given these corrective action strategies, ATT’s finally restored its image. Benoit (1995) also examined Union Carbide’s response to the Bhopal, India, gas leak that kille d thousands and injured hundreds of thousands. Union Carbide’s primary strategies, bolstering and corrective action, were focused on four specific actions: a relief fund, an orphanage, medical supplies, and medical personnel. Although these strategies were appropriate and timely, Benoit claimed that Union Carbide failed to address the most important question: What were they doing to prevent another tragedy? Coombs (1999, 2007) develops situational crisis communication theory, creating 10 categories of basic organizational crisis communication strategies. These strategies are further grouped into four posture: 1) â€Å"denial posture† including attack the accuser (confronting person claiming a crisis occurred), denial ( asserting no crisis), and scapegoat (shifting the blame to others outside the organization), with an attempt to eliminate the crisis by denying its existence or the organization’s responsibility for the crisis; 2) â€Å"diminishment posture† which takes the forms of excuse (denying intend to do harm or claiming inability to control) and justification (minimizing severity of damage) with the purpose of weakening the link between the crisis and the organization by claiming the crisis is not the organization’s fault; 3) â€Å"rebuilding posture† of compensation (providing money or other gifts to the victims) and apology (taking full responsibility), which strives to restore legitimacy by seeking public approval and forgiveness; and 4) â€Å"bolstering posture† which includes reminder (telling stakeholders about its past good works), ingratiation (praising stakeholders and/or reminds them of past good works) and victimage (reminding stakeholders that the organization is a victim of the crisis, too). Using Coombs’s typology of crisis response strategies, Wilcox and Cameron (2006) examined the case of Intel. In 1993, Intel initially denied there was a problem with its Pentium 586 chip. As the crisis was covered in the mainstream press, Intel used the justification strategy by assuring that the problem was not serious enough to warrant replacing the chips. It minimized the concerns of consumers. In fact, Intel mismanaged the handling of its crisis communication. First, it did not disclose to the public the information about the Pentium flaw when they initially realized there was a problem. Then when the problem finally did come out into the open, they downplayed it instead of helping the users who had purchased the flawed chips. After considerable damage had been done to Intel’s reputation and IBM had suspended orders for the chip, Intel took corrective action to replace the chips. Subsequently, Andy Grove, Intel’s president, issued a full apology. Based on Benoit’s image repair theory and Coombs’s typology of crisis response st rategies, the following research questions are posited: RQ 1. What strategies did Martha Stewart use to manage her insider trading crisis? RQ 2. Were these strategies effective or ineffective? RQ 3. What can we learn from Martha Stewart case? 4. Methodology The case study is employed in this study, as it is effective in illustrating public relations management in real situations (Hendrix, 2004). According to Yin (1994), the six sources of evidence that are typically associated with the case study include documents, archival records, interviews, direct observation, participant -observation, and physical artifacts. In this study, texts documenting Stewart’s discourse in response to incidents that threatened her image were collected from multiple sources. Specifically, this study used predominantly two types of data: documents and archival records. It began with gathering data and finding facts related to cases and defining the specific tasks. The actions and communication strategies used by Martha Stewart wer e reviewed with information from her corporate websites, press releases and media coverage. MSO is a publicly traded company. A look at the organizational archival records (e.g., stock prices, sales and annual reports) and official government records (e.g. , court records and commission reports) contributed to understand the impact of corporate scandals have had on the companies’ financial performance and their stakeholders. The media coverage on the Martha Stewart case was found through Lexis Nexis Academi c keyword search of â€Å"Martha Stewart insider trading† in The New York Times and The Washington Post. These newspapers were selected because of their large circulation, prominence and influence on public opinion. For the purpose of the valance of news narration in this study, the period of analysis covered two time frames (during the crisis and post crisis). The first time frame started from the trading day to the verdict, beginning in December, 2001 and running through March, 2004. The second time frame started from the day of sentencing to her release from prison, beginning on July 16, 2004 and running t hrough March 2005. Since the research questions of this study were related to crisis communication strategies, the unit of analysis of this case study was Martha Stewart’s response to stakeholders during and post crisis. Thus, the strategies were apparent through the types of evide nce. 14 By examining corporate communication employed by Martha Stewart during the crisis and post -crisis period, the procedures for analysis involved three steps. First, after the data were collected from multiple sources, a detailed timeline of relevant events leading up to the crisis itself, and the post-crisis process was created. For example, the chronological order of the Martha Stewart case was constructed in the following manner: 1) the investigation (January, 2002 June, 2003); 2) indictment (June – December, 2003); 3) verdict (January May, 2004); 4) sentencing (June – July, 2004); 5) in prison (October, 2004); and 6) release from prison (March, 2005). Second, after the chronological order of actual events was refined, a narrative description and process analysis of each event was thus constructed. A worksheet served as an organizing tool for evaluating each event. All data collected were analyzed using the typology of crisis response strategy. Finally, a thick descript ion and analysis of the findings of each research question was conducted. 5. Analysis of Martha Stewart’s Crisis Response Strategies 5. 1 Investigation The story about Martha Stewart’s ImClone stock sale was broken to the public in the Wall Street Journal on June 7, 2002 (Adams Anand, 2002). In the article, her lawyer, John Savarese, indicated that Stewart had set the price at US$60 for selling the stock but in fact, as of June 7, 2002, the stock price of ImClone sank to a low US$8.45 a share. Using the strategy of differentiation, Savarese further was trying to put distance between Stewart and Sam Waksal. There is absolutely no evidence whatsoever that she spoke to Sam, or had any information from anybody from ImClone during that week †¦ I am absolutely sure that there was no communication of any kind between her and Sam, no passing of any information from him to her. (Adams Anand, 2002, p. B2) On June 12, 2002, Waksal was arrested for insider trading and soon after, the stock price of MSO plunged 12 percent, closing at US$15. From June 6, 2002, when congressional investigators started looking into Stewart’s sale of ImClone shares, the stock price of MSO had dropped 22 percent. Stewart immediately denied any insider trading or wrongdoing and, in a public statement, she said she knew nothing about the pending FDA announcement. She claimed that when the share price dropped below US$60 – the level at which she had agreed with her broker – she returned a call from her broker and sold the s hares on December 27, 2001. She acknowledged that after the trade, she immediately called Waksal but could not reach him, and he did not call her back. The message she left read: â€Å"Martha Stewart called. Something is going on with ImClone and she wants to know what† (Hays, 2002a, p. C1). She proclaimed her innocence in her statement: â€Å"In placing my trade, I had no improper information. My transaction was entirely lawful† (White, 2002, p. E1). However, the congressional investigator questioned Stewart’s sale, noting that ImClone dropped below $60 at least once before while Stewart owned it (White, 2002). On June 18, 2002, Stewart tried to resolve concerns about her sale of ImClone shares and hired a new lawyer, James F. Fitzpatrick, who submitted several documents to congressional investigators. This was the first time Stewart used a strategy of corrective action as a response to the inquiries. On June 19, 2002, MSO stock rebounded sharply, climbing from US$2.05, to US$14.4 and then to US$16.45, suggesting that her corrective action was working. However, Ken Johnson, a spokesman for the House Energy and Commerce Committee, said the documents would help answer some questions but â€Å"we still don’t have an answer to the most nagging one: was Ms. Stewart’s pre-existing agreement to sell reached in late November, as she says, or in mid-December as some reports have indicated?† (Hays, 2002b, p. C7). On June 25, 2002, she appeared on CBS’s The Early Show, and when asked by the host, Jane Clayson, about the ImClone shares during a cooking segment, she replied while slicing a cabbage with a big knife. I’m involved in an investigation that has very serious implications. I have nothing to say on the matter. I’m really not at liberty to say. And as I said, I think this will be resolved in the very near future and I will be exonerated of any ridiculousness. And I just want to focus on my salad because that is why we’re here. (Clayson, 2002) Apparently, Stewart had no idea how to handle the situation and was unwilling to respond to the questions. She continued to dodge public inquiries and ignored the increasing outcry for answers about her role in the insider trading scandal.

My Uncle Killed Himself Essay -- Death, Suicide

As I grumbled and griped about having an honors band rehersal only hours before the concert - as i complained about the growing callus on my thumb, about the gay kid with the neckstrap who was first chair clarinet, as i lamented the fact I could NEVER play this music, that i wouldn't get any better in that small practice, so WHY bother- my uncle killed himself. in the basement of his very own house at that, with a gun. his two little girls and pregnant wife left him, and he took his own life. at the memorial, our pastor spoke of God, of how even "Jesus wept" at a friend's death (excuse my ignorance, i know not much of religion.). he said that he knew we were angry, that he knew we would harbor hate and such for a long time, that we would always struggle to understand what happened. i was fine until that point. because i had never really thought about it. I hadn't grieved, I hadn't cried, I wasn't even able to find a friend to cry to. it's our new dark family secret. A promising, handsome, charming young man, with two beautiful daughters, a third on the wa...

The Hunchback in the Park

The Hunchback in the Park My life makes me want to run away. I’ve got no place to go. No family, no house, no anything. All wiped out by a fire in 2001. I did not get any money paid out by the insurance company because they said the fire was an â€Å"act of God† caused by a lightning strike, which my insurance did not cover. Since then, I’ve been walking this park, alone and joked about by everyone who walks past me. Now I guess you’re wondering, why don’t I get a job? Why does everyone joke about me? Why do I not ask my family for help?Well, I have been applying for jobs, it’s just that no-one accepts me. I studied hard at school and I got decent grades, but no jobs are available to me. The answer to the second question is something that I just have to live with. During the fire, My face was horribly burned. This, added to the fact that I am short and have a hunchback, makes people fear me and run away or just shout abuse at me. Finally, the answer to the third question is that I simply do not have any. My parents died when I was two years old. I have no aunties, no uncles, nobody.There is one person in my life though. If there is anyone who could be â€Å"that special someone†, it’s her. She’s beautiful. Despite never talking to her, our eyes have met many times and it’s love at first sight. I just wish I could gather up the courage to finally talk to her. It has been a while since I’ve approached a woman without being slapped or ran away from. In fact, it has been a while since I have approached anyone. Any social interaction with the world feels awkward and scary because it has been so long.The only interaction I have with the outside world is through the local children who torment me each day. Each day, I sit on this bench starving. The only meals I eat are leftovers I manage to find in the bin. It is a miracle how I survive. How I have not died from dehydration, starvation or hyp othermia is a miracle. I have not had a shower in months. I just wish someone would take me home. Look – there's the woman! The woman which takes my breath away every time I see her. Maybe she could be the one to take me off the streets.Only if I could gather up the courage to approach her my life would not be as much of a mess and I could get my life moving in the right direction. OK, I'm going to do it this time. I'm going to talk to her! As I get off the bench, I spot the local children! Quick, hide! Those pesky local children are coming. Look at them, with their hoods up; with their phones playing out their angry music; with their hands in the shape of a gun. They make my life hell – even though I don’t provoke them.I can't run very fast due to my disability (which is my hunchback) so when the children chase me I can not get away. They circle me and torment me. One day, they pushed me over. It hurt and many people seen this, but no-one came to help me. I was shocked that no-one asked me if I was OK, this is one of the reasons I give up on the world. People are selfish and do not care about anyone else. Eventually, the children grew tiresome of mocking me and left – either that or they left because it was getting dark. So, here I am once again.Another lonely night, propped up against a tree, with no-one to hold. No family to wish goodnight. Oh, what I would give to feel loved again. Each day is a recurring nightmare, except I can't wake up. I'm going to make a promise to myself now, and it is that tomorrow I'm going to try turn my life around. I'm going to apply for a job and I'm going to ask the girl of my dreams to dinner. Oh, how wonderful life could become with those two simple things. â€Å"You! †, the park keeper says, as he pokes me with his pointed stick used for picking up leaves, â€Å"Time to move along. †.So my day begins, and I'm feeling slightly optimistic for once – knowing that today I will be once again attempting to sort out my life. You may be thinking, â€Å"Why do you think this attempt will be any different to your others? †, well I'm not too sure myself. All I know is that today I'm going to come across as a confident individual. I think this is what I have been lacking, but it is hard for me to be confident when I have the likes of those pesky children always tormenting me, insulting me and abusing me. Anyway, the first step in getting back on my feet is to get a job. The Hunchback in the Park The Hunchback in the Park My life makes me want to run away. I’ve got no place to go. No family, no house, no anything. All wiped out by a fire in 2001. I did not get any money paid out by the insurance company because they said the fire was an â€Å"act of God† caused by a lightning strike, which my insurance did not cover. Since then, I’ve been walking this park, alone and joked about by everyone who walks past me. Now I guess you’re wondering, why don’t I get a job? Why does everyone joke about me? Why do I not ask my family for help?Well, I have been applying for jobs, it’s just that no-one accepts me. I studied hard at school and I got decent grades, but no jobs are available to me. The answer to the second question is something that I just have to live with. During the fire, My face was horribly burned. This, added to the fact that I am short and have a hunchback, makes people fear me and run away or just shout abuse at me. Finally, the answer to the third question is that I simply do not have any. My parents died when I was two years old. I have no aunties, no uncles, nobody.There is one person in my life though. If there is anyone who could be â€Å"that special someone†, it’s her. She’s beautiful. Despite never talking to her, our eyes have met many times and it’s love at first sight. I just wish I could gather up the courage to finally talk to her. It has been a while since I’ve approached a woman without being slapped or ran away from. In fact, it has been a while since I have approached anyone. Any social interaction with the world feels awkward and scary because it has been so long.The only interaction I have with the outside world is through the local children who torment me each day. Each day, I sit on this bench starving. The only meals I eat are leftovers I manage to find in the bin. It is a miracle how I survive. How I have not died from dehydration, starvation or hyp othermia is a miracle. I have not had a shower in months. I just wish someone would take me home. Look – there's the woman! The woman which takes my breath away every time I see her. Maybe she could be the one to take me off the streets.Only if I could gather up the courage to approach her my life would not be as much of a mess and I could get my life moving in the right direction. OK, I'm going to do it this time. I'm going to talk to her! As I get off the bench, I spot the local children! Quick, hide! Those pesky local children are coming. Look at them, with their hoods up; with their phones playing out their angry music; with their hands in the shape of a gun. They make my life hell – even though I don’t provoke them.I can't run very fast due to my disability (which is my hunchback) so when the children chase me I can not get away. They circle me and torment me. One day, they pushed me over. It hurt and many people seen this, but no-one came to help me. I was shocked that no-one asked me if I was OK, this is one of the reasons I give up on the world. People are selfish and do not care about anyone else. Eventually, the children grew tiresome of mocking me and left – either that or they left because it was getting dark. So, here I am once again.Another lonely night, propped up against a tree, with no-one to hold. No family to wish goodnight. Oh, what I would give to feel loved again. Each day is a recurring nightmare, except I can't wake up. I'm going to make a promise to myself now, and it is that tomorrow I'm going to try turn my life around. I'm going to apply for a job and I'm going to ask the girl of my dreams to dinner. Oh, how wonderful life could become with those two simple things. â€Å"You! †, the park keeper says, as he pokes me with his pointed stick used for picking up leaves, â€Å"Time to move along. †.So my day begins, and I'm feeling slightly optimistic for once – knowing that today I will be once again attempting to sort out my life. You may be thinking, â€Å"Why do you think this attempt will be any different to your others? †, well I'm not too sure myself. All I know is that today I'm going to come across as a confident individual. I think this is what I have been lacking, but it is hard for me to be confident when I have the likes of those pesky children always tormenting me, insulting me and abusing me. Anyway, the first step in getting back on my feet is to get a job.